From Recession to Recovery: Analyzing America's Return to Growth

From Recession to Recovery: Analyzing America's Return to Growth There's no shortage of doom and gloom in the national debate over where the economy is headed. But is it really justified? Or are we missing an opportunity to see real, albeit modest growth unfolding? A new forecast from Ross DeVol, Executive Director of Economic Research, finds tangible signs of a turnaround in the U.S. and says that the recovery is already under way. Read the full report. Forecasts in From Recession to Recovery: Analyzing America's Return to Growth include: Ross DeVol outlines the U.S. economic recovery already underway Real GDP will grow at 3.5 percent in 2010, 3.7 percent in 2011 and 3.8 percent in 2012. Growth returns to slightly less than 3 percent from 2013 to 2015. The U.S. will add 1.8 million jobs in 2010, 3.1 million in 2011 and 2.6 million in 2012. Real consumer spending is projected to increase 2.8 percent in 2010, 3.5 percent in 2011 and 3.0 percent in 2012. New home construction won't provide a boost in 2010, but residential fixed investment should jump 26.0 percent in 2011 and 25.7 percent in 2012. The underlying fuels for this moderate but stable economic growth are: Economic growth in developing countries, which supports U.S. exports Improved business confidence that fosters strong investment in equipment and software Consumers making previously deferred purchases of durable goods Record-low long-term interest rates A benign inflationary environment that will allow the Fed to keep short-term interest rates at zero until late 2010 or even into 2011 The full forecast includes projections for consumer and labor markets, housing and nonresidential construction, the federal deficit, state and local government purchases, and interest rates.

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